Simulated Projections in Paddy Growing Season over Kashmir Himalayan Region
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- Climate Change, Growing Season, Agricultural Productivity, PRECIS Model, Himalayan Region
- Muslim, Mohammad
- This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 Creative Commons License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
- Climate is the primary determinant of agricultural productivity. There has been a growing recognition of the possibility of global climate change on agriculture with an increasing emphasis on regional food security. Climate change impact over agricultural productivity is compounded when farming is practiced at or near the edge of a climatic region where a small change in climate could substantially alter the potential for agriculture, thus creating a mismatch between existing farming systems and prevailing climatic resources for agriculture. Kashmir Himalayan region is expected to be highly prone to the consequences to climate change because of its geo-ecological fragility, strategic location vis-à-vis Himalayan landscape its trans-boundary river basins and its inherent socio-economic instabilities. Food security and sustainability of the region are thus greatly challenged by these impacts. Incurrent study climate projections in paddy growing season were examined over three time slices, viz. short (2010 – 2050), medium (2050 – 2098) and long (2010 – 2098). The results showed a marked change both in precipitation and temperature patterns in paddy growing season, under future climatic scenarios particularly becoming conspicuous after the 2050 over the region. The increase in temperature was found to be more significant in minimum then maximum temperature. The characteristics of daily rainfall over the region showed an overall decrease in amount over the region contrary to increase in amount in growing season. The redistribution of daily rainfall characteristics made the seasonal total to be trendless, bearing serious implications on way we conserve and utilize the water in the region.
Full text: IJRAS_141_Final.pdf